Flávio Bambirra Gonçalves              br  gbr



  • BSc. in Statistics - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil. 2004
  • MSc. in Statistics - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 2006
  • PhD. in Statistics - University of Warwick, UK. 2011


I am interested in:

  • Inference for stochastic processes
  • Stochastic simulation
  • Computational Statistics and Monte Carlo methods
  • Item response theory
  • Bayesian Statistics
  • Mathematical Statistics


Selected publications

  • Exact Bayesian inference for level-set Cox processes with piecewise constant intensity function|. To appear in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 2022. (with B. C. C. Dias)
  • Exact and computationally efficient Bayesian inference for generalized Markov modulated Poisson processes. Statistics and Computing, v. 32, 14, 2022. (with L. M. Dutra and R. W. C. Silva)
  • Efficient Bernoulli factory MCMC for intractable posteriors. Biometrika, v. 109, p 369-385, 2022. (with D. Vats, K. G. Latuszynski and G. O. Roberts). 

  • Exact Bayesian inference in spatio-temporal Cox processes driven by multivariate Gaussian processes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series B v. 80, p. 157-175, 2018. (with D. Gamerman) 

  • A Bayesian hidden Markov mixture model to detect overexpressed chromosome regions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C, v. 66, p. 387-412, 2017. (with V. D. Mayrink). 

  • Exact simulation problems for jump-diffusions. Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, v. 16, p. 907-930, 2014. (with G. O. Roberts). 

Other journal papers and preprints

  • Exact Bayesian inference for diffusion driven Cox processes. [arXiv:2007.05812] (with K. G. Latuszynski and G. O. Roberts). 
  • Multidimensional Bayesian IRT Model for Hierarchical Latent Structures. [arXiv:2006.09966] (with J. Venturelli and D. F. Andrade).
  • Flexible Bayesian modelling in dichotomous item response theory using mixtures of skewed item curves. To appear in British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 2022. (with J. Venturelli and R. Loschi).
  • On the definition of likelihood function. [arXiv:1906.10733] (with P. Franklin).

  •  Bayesian linear regression models with flexible error distributions. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, v. 90, p. 2571-2591, 2020.  (with N. B. da Silva and M. Prates). 

  • Identifying down and up-regulated chromosome regions using RNA-Seq data. Statistical Methods and Applications, v. 29, p. 619-649, 2020. (with V. D. Mayrink).

  • Robust Bayesian model selection for heavy-tailed linear regression using finite mixtures. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, v. 34, p. 51-70, 2020. (with M. Prates and V. H. Lachos). 

  • Bayesian modelling of the abilities in dichotomous IRT models via regression with missing values in the covariates. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, v. 33, p. 782-800, 2019. (with B. C. C. Dias). 

  • Bayesian Item Response model: a generalised approach for the abilities' distribution using mixtures. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation. v. 88, p. 967-981, 2018. (with B. C. C. Dias and T. M. Soares). 

  • Barker's algorithm for Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, v. 31, p. 732-745, 2017.  (with K. G. Łatuszyński and G. O. Roberts). 

  • Simultaneous Multifactor DIF Analysis and Detection in Item Response Theory. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, v. 59, p. 144-160, 2013. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares). 

  • An integrated Bayesian model for DIF analysis. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, v. 34, p. 348-377, 2009. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares). 

  • Análise Bayesiana do Funcionamento Diferencial do Item. Pesquisa Operacional, v. 27, p. 271-291, 2007. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares). 

  • Avaliação de uma medida de evidência de um ponto de mudança e sua utilização na identificação de mudanças na taxa de criminalidade em Belo Horizonte. Pesquisa Operacional, v. 25, n. 3, p. 449-463, 2005. (with R. H. Loschi and F. R. B. Cruz).


  • Stochastic Simulation and Statistical Inference for Diffusion Processes. 1 ed.: Associação Brasileira de Estatística, 2012. (in Portuguese)

Book chapters

  • Differential Item Functioning. In: Wim J. van der Linden (Eds.). Handbook of Item Response Theory - Volume Three. 1 ed.: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2018. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares)
  • Bayesian analysis in Item Response Theory applied to a large-scale educational assessment. In: Mike West; Tony O'Hagan. (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis. 1 ed.: Oxford University Press, 2010. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares)


PhD students

  • Izabel N. de Souza (UFRJ, jointly with Dani Gamerman, 2022- )
  • Larissa N. A. Martins (UFMG, 2020- )
  • Guilherme A. S. Aguilar (UFMG, 2017-2022)
  • Bárbara C. C. Dias (UFMG, 2015-2019)
  • Juliane V. S. Lima (UFMG, 2015-2019)
  • Lívia  M. Dutra (UFMG, jointly with Roger W. C. Silva, 2015-2019)
  • Pedro F. C. Silva (UFMG, 2015-2017)
  • Nívea B. da Silva (UFMG, jointly with Marcos O. Prates, 2014-2017)

Associate Professor

Statistics Department
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais


Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, Depto. de Estatística,
ICEx, UFMG, Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, MG,
CEP 31270-901


+55 31 3409-5939