Flávio Bambirra Gonçalves              br  gbr



  • BSc. in Statistics - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil. 2004
  • MSc. in Statistics - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 2006
  • PhD. in Statistics - University of Warwick, UK. 2011


I am interested in:

  • Inference for stochastic processes
  • Stochastic simulation
  • Computational Statistics and Monte Carlo methods
  • Geostatistics
  • Bayesian Statistics
  • Mathematical Statistics
  • Item response theory


Selected publications

  • Exact Bayesian inference for diffusion driven Cox processes. To appear in Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2023. (with K. G. Latuszynski and G. O. Roberts). 
  • Exact Monte Carlo likelihood-based inference for jump-diffusion processes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series B, v. 85, p. 732-756, 2023. (with K. G. Latuszynski and G. O. Roberts).
  • Exact Bayesian inference for level-set Cox processes with piecewise constant intensity function|. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, v. 32, p. 1-18, 2023. (with B. C. C. Dias)
  • Exact and computationally efficient Bayesian inference for generalized Markov modulated Poisson processes. Statistics and Computing, v. 32, 14, 2022. (with L. M. Dutra and R. W. C. Silva)
  • Efficient Bernoulli factory MCMC for intractable posteriors. Biometrika, v. 109, p 369-385, 2022. (with D. Vats, K. G. Latuszynski and G. O. Roberts). 

  • Corrigendum: Exact Bayesian inference in spatio-temporal Cox processes driven by multivariate Gaussian processes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series B v. 85, p. 176, 2023. (with D. Gamerman) 
  • Exact Bayesian inference in spatio-temporal Cox processes driven by multivariate Gaussian processes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series B v. 80, p. 157-175, 2018. (with D. Gamerman) 

  • A Bayesian hidden Markov mixture model to detect overexpressed chromosome regions. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C, v. 66, p. 387-412, 2017. (with V. D. Mayrink). 

  • Exact simulation problems for jump-diffusions. Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, v. 16, p. 907-930, 2014. (with G. O. Roberts). 

Other journal papers and preprints

  • Multidimensional Bayesian IRT Model for Hierarchical Latent Structures. [arXiv:2006.09966] (with J. Venturelli and D. F. Andrade).
  • Flexible Bayesian modelling in dichotomous item response theory using mixtures of skewed item curves. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, v. 76, p. 69-86, 2022. (with J. Venturelli and R. Loschi).
  • On the definition of likelihood function. [arXiv:1906.10733] (with P. Franklin).

  •  Bayesian linear regression models with flexible error distributions. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, v. 90, p. 2571-2591, 2020.  (with N. B. da Silva and M. Prates). 

  • Identifying down and up-regulated chromosome regions using RNA-Seq data. Statistical Methods and Applications, v. 29, p. 619-649, 2020. (with V. D. Mayrink).

  • Robust Bayesian model selection for heavy-tailed linear regression using finite mixtures. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, v. 34, p. 51-70, 2020. (with M. Prates and V. H. Lachos). 

  • Bayesian modelling of the abilities in dichotomous IRT models via regression with missing values in the covariates. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, v. 33, p. 782-800, 2019. (with B. C. C. Dias). 

  • Bayesian Item Response model: a generalised approach for the abilities' distribution using mixtures. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation. v. 88, p. 967-981, 2018. (with B. C. C. Dias and T. M. Soares). 

  • Barker's algorithm for Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, v. 31, p. 732-745, 2017.  (with K. G. Łatuszyński and G. O. Roberts). 

  • Simultaneous Multifactor DIF Analysis and Detection in Item Response Theory. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, v. 59, p. 144-160, 2013. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares). 

  • An integrated Bayesian model for DIF analysis. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, v. 34, p. 348-377, 2009. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares). 

  • Análise Bayesiana do Funcionamento Diferencial do Item. Pesquisa Operacional, v. 27, p. 271-291, 2007. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares). 

  • Avaliação de uma medida de evidência de um ponto de mudança e sua utilização na identificação de mudanças na taxa de criminalidade em Belo Horizonte. Pesquisa Operacional, v. 25, n. 3, p. 449-463, 2005. (with R. H. Loschi and F. R. B. Cruz).


  • Stochastic Simulation and Statistical Inference for Diffusion Processes. 1 ed.: Associação Brasileira de Estatística, 2012. (in Portuguese)

Book chapters

  • Differential Item Functioning. In: Wim J. van der Linden (Eds.). Handbook of Item Response Theory - Volume Three. 1 ed.: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2018. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares)
  • Bayesian analysis in Item Response Theory applied to a large-scale educational assessment. In: Mike West; Tony O'Hagan. (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis. 1 ed.: Oxford University Press, 2010. (with D. Gamerman and T. M. Soares)


PhD students

  • Gracielle Antunes (UFMG, 2022- )
  • Izabel N. de Souza (UFRJ, jointly with Dani Gamerman, 2022- )
  • Larissa N. A. Martins (UFMG, jointly with Thais Paiva, 2020-2024)
  • Guilherme A. S. Aguilar (UFMG, 2017-2022)
  • Bárbara C. C. Dias (UFMG, 2015-2019)
  • Juliane V. S. Lima (UFMG, 2015-2019)
  • Lívia  M. Dutra (UFMG, jointly with Roger W. C. Silva, 2015-2019)
  • Pedro F. C. Silva (UFMG, 2015-2017)
  • Nívea B. da Silva (UFMG, jointly with Marcos O. Prates, 2014-2017)

Associate Professor

Statistics Department
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais


Av. Antônio Carlos 6627, Depto. de Estatística,
ICEx, UFMG, Pampulha, Belo Horizonte, MG,
CEP 31270-901


+55 31 3409-5939