Some countries' predictions have been temporarily removed from the app due to the inadequacy of the current model for data series with more than one wave.
Forecasts for new confirmed cases have been removed for: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Uruguay and the USA. In addition, new death forecasts for Australia and the USA have been removed.
Our team is working on adjustments to the methodology to accommodate this type of data series, and soon, we hope to resume predicions for these countries.
Starting today, CovidLP will do the prediction analysis for the United States as it is being done for Brazil, straight from the sum of its states, instead of an independent model. The need for this change had also been detected by our team, but it had not yet been implemented in our analyzes. Now, we are able to operationalize the inclusion of this component.
We continue to study the possibility of including the same procedure in the analyzes of other countries, as well as other methodological changes.
We are studying the possibility of including the same procedure in the analyzes of other countries. The main difficulty is the increase in computational cost.
In our analyzes, we observed a significant difference in the number of cases reported on Sundays and Mondays, compared to the rest of the week, in all Brazilian states. To accommodate this effect, a specific parameter has been included for each of these days of the week, which allows the estimated average curve (orange line) to assume different values during those days.
