Published: 08 July 2022

Considering the effectiveness of vaccination in significantly reducing the fatality rate of COVID-19, and the resumption of most daily activities, we have observed a decrease in the general interest of the population in following daily forecasts regarding the numbers of the disease.

For this reason, and given the involvement of the team's researchers in other projects, we decided to end forecast updates in the CovidLP app from July/2022. We are very pleased with all the products resulting from this excellent partnership between students and teachers, and we are confident that we have fulfilled our role as scientists for the last two years.

Published: 18 February 2022

As of today, another tab with a new functionality is available in the app to follow the Evolution of Long-Term Predictions made by our team throughout the pandemic.

To view the animation, simply select the desired start date and click the play button. You can pause the animation at any time, as well as use the bar to select a specific date.

The graphs show the predictions that have been published weekly by our app, from the beginning of 2021 to the most recent forecast. The vertical red and green bars indicate the estimated credibility intervals for the peak and end of 99% of the cases, respectively. Point estimates for peak dates, end of 99% of cases, and also for the total number of cases or deaths, are  highlighted in the legend in the upper left corner of the graphs.

Published: 14 January 2022

Due to the interruption of updates of COVID data from the Ministry of Health since mid-December 2021, data visualization and new predictions for Brazil and its states are currently suspended in our app.

As this outage is in the official government data source, other organizations responsible for data compilation are also having new updates compromised. For this reason, the CovidLP team is waiting for the normalization of official systems to resume forecasts as soon as possible.

Published: 26 May 2021

Due to a modification in the disclosure format of official data of Brazil and states by the Ministry of Health, we will have to suspend the predictions' updates temporarily until access to the complete data is normalized.

This modification also affected the exposure of the observed data series in the graphs of the first tab of our application, which for the time being is out of date. As soon as these problems are corrected, all graphs will be updated.